Was the sitdown a smokescreen?

[PFloyd69]

If, and this is still obviously up for debate, Tony did get whacked at the end of the episode did that mean Paulie was right? Was the sitdown an effort by NY to lure Tony out of hiding and get him to let his guard down? I mean Butch knew that Phil was unhappy about not completing the job. Maybe they got that guy George to reach out to Tony and the phone call we heard was Tony calling him back.

Butch and Albie didn't contribute to Phil getting whacked in any way. So what if Tony found Phil, killed him, and then NY completed the job they had set out to do?

[RidleyGriff]

I think that's definitely a possibility -- with Phil gone, Tony would be the big dog and N.J. would arguably have a leg up on the N.Y. family. It would seem to track as a viable possibility that Carmine or one of Phil's guys would go through with the hit on Tony, now that he was out in the open, in order to create a total power vaccuum between the two families.

[MourningTony]

I think that's definitely a possibility -- with Phil gone, Tony would be the big dog and N.J. would arguably have a leg up on the N.Y. family. It would seem to track as a viable possibility that Carmine or one of Phil's guys would go through with the hit on Tony, now that he was out in the open, in order to create a total power vaccuum between the two families.

This is EXACTLY how alot of bosses get to be bosses...

[MourningTony]

If, and this is still obviously up for debate, Tony did get whacked at the end of the episode did that mean Paulie was right? Was the sitdown an effort by NY to lure Tony out of hiding and get him to let his guard down? I mean Butch knew that Phil was unhappy about not completing the job. Maybe they got that guy George to reach out to Tony and the phone call we heard was Tony calling him back.

Butch and Albie didn't contribute to Phil getting whacked in any way. So what if Tony found Phil, killed him, and then NY completed the job they had set out to do?

You have just described exactly what I think was the exact plot of this episode. Only I think that Tony reached out to George because the WHOLE PROBLEM WITH TONY THIS SEASON is that he has become naive and soft and a bad judge of character AND unable to tell his enemies from his enimies. I mean think about HOW many times did he go hat in hand to Phil..The guy is a scumbag and still he tried to reaon and give in to Phil like a gentleman.

Reaching out to George and Butch was nutso...So they got Tony to put down his guard and stop hiding...and they wacked in him the diner. period

[JoeyBagadonuts]

Then why not whack him and Paulie right at the sit-down?

Why risk a public hit where anything can go wrong when you've got the guy right there?

[Johny Foulmouth]

cause they didn't wanna have anything to do with whacking Phil, but wanted Phil gone

I think both NJ and NY played Tony

[PFloyd69]

Then why not whack him and Paulie right at the sit-down?


I was thinking more along the lines of George being on the level and that they really did get frisked when they went in to the sitdown. So there's no way they could have killed Tony there.

But coming to an agreement could have been a ploy by Butch to get Tony to put his guard down and get back out on the street so they could finish the job later.

If Tony got capped in that last scene it was obviously by his own crew or New York. If he did get killed and NY was behind it, this could explain why.

[PFloyd69]

cause they didn't wanna have anything to do with whacking Phil, but wanted Phil go

This is a good point as well.

[JoeyBagadonuts]

Realizing that this is fiction and not real life, and creative license is allowed, I have a major problem with this scenario. Phil's the boss of one of 5 families. Butch or Little Carmine--both present at the sit-down--are among Phil's likely successors. Butch is using George's good offices to broker a truce--probably because he damn well knows that Phil is now pissed at him, too. While I don't buy into this "Men of Honor" crap, when you have to deal with 4 other families in NY, that pygmy outfit across the river (even after you decapitate it the other 4 NY families won't allow you to absorb it because it upsets a delicate balance of power and turf), and families in Philly and New England with lots of territorial overlaps, you have to have some measure of trust, some guarantee that your word is your bond. You can't shake on a truce in the presence of a neutral broker and then double cross the other side. The enduring message is, "that Butch is a double-dealing cocksucker and you can't do business with him even if he gives you his word". That message also goes for Carmine.

If George is part of the double-cross, T and Paulie don't leave that meet alive.

That's just the way I see it.

[Pussy_Malanga]

You have just described exactly what I think was the exact plot of this episode. Only I think that Tony reached out to George because the WHOLE PROBLEM WITH TONY THIS SEASON is that he has become naive and soft and a bad judge of character AND unable to tell his enemies from his enimies. I mean think about HOW many times did he go hat in hand to Phil..The guy is a scumbag and still he tried to reaon and give in to Phil like a gentleman.

Reaching out to George and Butch was nutso...So they got Tony to put down his guard and stop hiding...and they wacked in him the diner. period


LOL "Period" - chase has already stated that the ending is left open for your own interpretation, and yet we still get people offering us opinion as fact.

My own "opinion" is that he is still alive - if he is dead it leaves even more unanswered questions and loose ends - who killed him, why did he die, etc etc.

[SilvioMancini]

I sort of see a little of the Judas theme if you will, in this meeting. Like kissing someone on the cheek while your planning to kill them in a few days. Makes people let their guard down. I almost think Tony knows he is going to die based on the scenes after the meeting. He seems at peace with it. Like he surrenders to it. But I think that this part of the episode is key to figuring out the ending. It definitely points to a connection between NY and a "whack Tony" scenario.

[JoeyBagadonuts]

Remember--it's business, not personal. Phil made it personal and that's why his crew was so willing to make peace and let Tony get to him.

What's the business sense of whacking Tony at this point? It might be there, and I may have missed it, so feel free to present your theory.

[TheBing]

Yes, to the benefit of Butchie, and others in Phil's branch of the NY Mob as well as Carmine Jr. I also agree that they wanted to smoke out Tony from hiding, to put the pressure on him to give or die and Tony wanted to flush out Phil as well.
Phil had started the war vs. Tony and his Northern NJ branch mainly as blood revenge for Tony's murder of his brother and others close to him. Both Tony and Phil knew that in a mob war as was happening, business suffers, income declines, you get too much attention from the Feds and others in law enforcement and too many innocents may die or get hurt. One has to wonder to if Butchie and others in Phil's branch didn't like Phil's takeover of the branch, how he wanted to do business or even felt he was even compentent enough to be a boss. He is also old (late 60's?) so how much longer would he be in power and hold up others in Phils' branch from moving up?

[JoeyBagadonuts]

Yes, to the benefit of Butchie, and others in Phil's branch of the NY Mob as well as Carmine Jr. I also agree that they wanted to smoke out Tony from hiding, to put the pressure on him to give or die and Tony wanted to flush out Phil as well.
Phil had started the war vs. Tony and his Northern NJ branch mainly as blood revenge for Tony's murder of his brother and others close to him. Both Tony and Phil knew that in a mob war as was happening, business suffers, income declines, you get too much attention from the Feds and others in law enforcement and too many innocents may die or get hurt. One has to wonder to if Butchie and others in Phil's branch didn't like Phil's takeover of the branch, how he wanted to do business or even felt he was even compentent enough to be a boss. He is also old (late 60's?) so how much longer would he be in power and hold up others in Phils' branch from moving up?

OK, those are the business reasons for the Liupertazzis to want Phil out of the picture (Butch also has a personal one in knowing Phil is pissed at him). Tony, besides wanting Phil for personal reasons, also has a business one--the envelopes in the safe house. "It's a little light", or "Guys are throwing in with NY". The war's hurting his business because the players are betting on Phil as the winner. What's the business reason for the Lupertazzis to want Tony dead after he takes Phil out? They certainly can't believe that with his crew cut to shreds, he's in any position to muscle in on their turf in Brooklyn.

[aprilemoney]

Just my two cents in regards to the "real life" mob war.

First off...the other four families are probably pissed about the war! They ask "Why did Phil hit New Jersey?"... the answer is .."for some shit that happened two years ago when John Sac was the boss." That foolish answer alone would piss off all the other families.

Now u got two captains dead and a boss still alive looking for payback..this is not good for any of the New York families business. I'm sure
Butchie and Al would have been hearing some whispers from the other bosses.

Thus Phil had to go because "he's changed" and he started this bloodshed. I doubt they would allow Tony to be killed after that sitdown. Cuz NJ would probably strike back. And then you are right back to the beginning.

[somewillwin]

If, and this is still obviously up for debate, Tony did get whacked at the end of the episode did that mean Paulie was right? Was the sitdown an effort by NY to lure Tony out of hiding and get him to let his guard down? I mean Butch knew that Phil was unhappy about not completing the job. Maybe they got that guy George to reach out to Tony and the phone call we heard was Tony calling him back.

Butch and Albie didn't contribute to Phil getting whacked in any way. So what if Tony found Phil, killed him, and then NY completed the job they had set out to do?



I think it’s a possibility actually. Under normal circumstances I could see it as a genuine truce to restore peace and continue business. But after going back and watching the episode again I can’t help but notice the blatant loss of respect and faith everyone around Tony has shown him in “Made in America.”

To recap quickly; from within T’s crew there’s Benny’s comment about “the gout” and not seeing Sil, there’s Carlo’s disappointment over not seeing Sil and the lament about the “power vacuum” and of course his eventual flip (the natural progression if he had doubt in Tony and the outfit) and then there’s Paulie turning down the promotion because of some superstition, but in reality he’s not confident in the position and thus the operation. You also have that awkward situation of Tony getting Patsy a drink and acting as a host, which reeked of submission at a time when absolute strength and subordination was imperative. And lastly the mention of the Cifireto crew running around like a “Chinese fire drill” is just one more stark example of the disorder, doubt and chaos that reflects poorly on Tony and his ability to run things.

…Which leads us to the most important factor, the perception from OUTSIDE the Soprano crew. Remember the collections were “light” again, a sign of doubt and disrespect. You have agent Harris who’s been this by the book, straight arrow Fed who always looked up to Tony in a way with respect, but now feels like he needs to help him to get him out of the trouble he’s in. A sign even he believed Tony was weak and in need of assistance in order to prevail. This is only reaffirmed when he gets the news Phil was “popped” and makes the “we’re gonna win this thing!” comment in a moment of genuine excitement and surprise (i.e. he was expecting things to happen differently).

But lastly, and most importantly in my opinion is what happens during the sit-down with New York, George and little Carmine. Through the entire meeting little Carmine is completely silent and when Tony comments on his absence from the conversation he looks at Tony and says, “it didn’t have to be this way.” That is HUGE. That is the perception of everyone in the mob world. Carmine didn’t say it to everybody; he didn’t say it rhetorically in a sigh looking up at the sky as if to say, “oh the helplessness of it all, but what can ya do?” No, he looked directly at Tony and said it to him as if to say, “you made this happen, you’re at fault.” Tony acknowledges the remark by rolling his head in a gesture that shouts “great, and another person who’s not seeing this my way.”

I think that’s more telling of Tony’s true situation than anything else. Remember in the mob world subtleties scream and perception IS reality. If the perception is you’re weak or a rat or a person with questionable integrity… then you are that person and people act on it (and you) accordingly. That’s why everyone is always so defensive and assertive, it’s why everyone is always testing everyone else to make sure the pecking order is where is should be. It’s because of this overt loss of faith that I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point after the sit-down the decision was made to get rid of Tony because he’s perceived as weak and unfit to run a family. His crews are diminished and in disarray, respect has been lost, his guys are turning rat and his judgment is questionable (see coco, war with phil etc).

It seems to me the damage has already been done and if NY maintains doing business with Tony then any of the doubt or disrespect or lack of faith that the community has for Tony immediately translates to NY for being associated. It seems pretty plausible that an outcome like that isn’t worth keeping Tony around and if he was killed in the dinner or at some point after I’m pretty sure that would be the reason for it.

[PFloyd69]

I have three theories about the sitdown.

1. (take it as face value) - Butch and Albie are really genuinely upset with Phil and want this war over. They want to reach out to NJ to make peace and they do. The war is over and they'll look the other way if Jersey decides to whack Phil. I also think that this theory (the one the show presents on the surface) would go along more with the "life goes on" theory at the end of the show. BC if NY is cool with Tony then who's going to kill him (unless his own crew takes him out)?

2. (the theory i presented before)- Butch, under extreme pressure from Phil, decides to reach out to Tony as a way to get him to put his guard down. Tony, thinking the issue has been resolved, goes back on the street and leaves himself open to getting hit. Also, you have to take into consideration that they way Phil got killed couldn't have sat right with NY. This is a 5 families boss and he gets shot in front of his family followed by his head getting run over. This would give Butchie and Albie even more fuel to go after T. Also, I'm still kind of puzzled that Butch would give in to Tony so easily. NY was already starting to take Tony's business. I could see why Jersey would want to settle but Butch (who is not portrayed as a nice or understanding guy) giving in seemed odd to me.

3. (NJ and NY underlings played BOTH bosses)- Hear me out. If Tony got whacked at the end of the episode in front of his family it would mirror the Phil hit. What if the way Tony got set up also mirrored Phil's situation? What if Butch and Albie reached out to Carlo, Paulie, or Patsy to betray Tony as Butch and Albie betrayed Phil? Tony's men are obviously not happy with him. Phil's men aren't happy with him. The war is essentially between Phil and Tony, but the other guys are the ones paying the price. What if there was an agreement to take out BOTH bosses and start doing business after the dust settles? We know that NY turned Burt. They could've easily turned a higher up guy as well.

[Johny Foulmouth]

That 3rd one is interesting, notice when Butchie tells NJ "You do whatcha gotta do".. Paulie looks at Tony and nods strangely..

[SilvioMancini]

PFloyd that was profound on #3
That theory is very chase like if you think about it.
I think it is also noteworthy to see the charecter differences in the two bosses.
Tony at this point seems the "hey lets compromise and work things out!" feel good attitude. Phil had the "Fuck you I'm cutting your head off!" attitude.
In the the "second coming" episode we see a similar theme with AJ's references to the Israeli\Palestine War. Maybe there is a theme to be explored here. The mafia families being the metaphorical microcosm of the Worlds conflicts going on today.
The wars that kill innocents and family
When you said "mirror" too, i thought whoah thats very chase-like

[gamecock]

Granted we will never be sure of the answer. I have to go with taking the sit down at face falue. All players seemed pretty genuine to me. I do not agree with little Carmine saying "it did not have to be this way" in referance solely to Tony. Carmine has not agreed with Phil through out this entire war.

Also when Tony calls George, when the feds are listening, George said "your ears must be ringing because I just got off the phone with your pal, you know the son he isn't happy about the situation." (this is little Carmine no doubt about it). Then George said "the little one isn't happy either.

I think at the end of the day a war is hitting both families financially. I mean the joint construction deals alone have got to be at a stand still.

I also think if George, who I prosume to be another boss or at least a high ranking guy from another family, set the meeting up he would not like a double cross to come from it by either side. He would not mind for Phil to be taken out because that was OKed by Butchie at the end of the sit down.

[JoeyBagadonuts]

And from a pure business standpoint, hitting Tony is probably the worst move anyone could make right now. Bobby dead, Chrissie dead, Sil comatose, Carlo gone missing, and so on. The family's in shambles and the only thing whacking Tony would do is spark the same kind of war of succession as had just taken place in the Lupertazzis. Paulie didn't even want to head up Ralph's old crew--would he want to be boss? It's in everyone's interest to have some continuity in the NJ outfit, at least for the time being. If T has to die for whacking Phil in front of Patty (let's not go into the absurd idea of a couple of infants being traumatized for something they'll never remember), it happens later, not sooner.

[peeayebee]

I take the meeting at face value. I would be more willing to accept the possibility of a double-cross if there had not been the scene of the phone conversation betw Phil and Butchie. We see that Butch thinks things have gone too far. He wants to make peace. Then he gets an implied threat from Phil. This scene was there to show us that Butch was not on the same page with Phil and wanted the war to stop.
Through the entire meeting little Carmine is completely silent and when Tony comments on his absence from the conversation he looks at Tony and says, “it didn’t have to be this way.” That is HUGE. That is the perception of everyone in the mob world. Carmine didn’t say it to everybody; he didn’t say it rhetorically in a sigh looking up at the sky as if to say, “oh the helplessness of it all, but what can ya do?” No, he looked directly at Tony and said it to him as if to say, “you made this happen, you’re at fault.” Tony acknowledges the remark by rolling his head in a gesture that shouts “great, and another person who’s not seeing this my way.”
I didn't see it like that. First, I saw Little Carmine as inept in this scene. He's the negotiator, and yet he has nothing worthwhile to say. He has regularly been portrayed as a buffoon, and I think that trend continues here. "It didn't have to be this way." That's a sitting-on-the-fence statement. Of course it didn't have to be this way. Everyone there in the room agrees that Phil went too far. I certainly didn't see his statement as directed at Tony, as accusing Tony. I saw it as agreeing with Tony. Tony seemed to gesture as if to say, "Yes. Thank you." Then Butchie says he agrees.

Funny how people can see the same little scene differently.

[djui5]

Anyone notice how the subway train noise built and built in that scene, then suddenly cut out? :)

[bigbadbill007]

And from a pure business standpoint, hitting Tony is probably the worst move anyone could make right now. Bobby dead, Chrissie dead, Sil comatose, Carlo gone missing, and so on. The family's in shambles and the only thing whacking Tony would do is spark the same kind of war of succession as had just taken place in the Lupertazzis. Paulie didn't even want to head up Ralph's old crew--would he want to be boss? It's in everyone's interest to have some continuity in the NJ outfit, at least for the time being. If T has to die for whacking Phil in front of Patty (let's not go into the absurd idea of a couple of infants being traumatized for something they'll never remember), it happens later, not sooner.

AGREED

ANYONE remember seasons 3 and 4 when Johnny Sack was always saying that the sopranos make a lot of money for NY. I believe that tony had the backing of the commision. The other 4 families don't want to see another family get destroyed and the rusians taking their place.

The falling state of the italian mob nowadays means that shake up in the ranks can never be good unless it is absolutely necessary